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53 articles · Clear searchMARKETS & IDEAS
Is Crypto a Diversifier? A Correlation Matrix for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold and Stocks
Daily-return correlations between Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold and the S&P 500 since 2021, how they changed over the last 90 days, and why diversification is weakest when you need it.
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Portfolio Rebalancing with Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks: What 20 Percent Crypto Did
A worked Portfolio Mix example since 2021: 20 percent Bitcoin, 60 percent S&P 500 and 20 percent gold versus all Bitcoin, with return, volatility, worst drop and the effect of rebalancing.
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DCA vs Lump Sum in Bitcoin: What Five Years of Data Say
Weekly dollar-cost averaging versus investing the same total on day one, measured on real Bitcoin closes since January 2021, with the equity curves and the honest caveat.
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Bitcoin vs Ethereum Head to Head: Return, Drawdown and Correlation
A same-money, same-date comparison of Bitcoin and Ethereum since 2021 with drawdowns, volatility, correlation and year-by-year winners, using the Hindsight Lab.
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Drawdown Autopsy: How Deep and How Long Bitcoin Crashes Last
Every Bitcoin drawdown of 20 percent or more since 2015: depth, days to the bottom, days to recover and how much time the asset spent below its high.
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What Are the Odds of Profit Holding Bitcoin? Rolling Windows Explained
Pick any day since 2015, hold Bitcoin for a month to five years, and see how often you made money, doubled or lost half, with the overlap caveat.
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The Fed Hiked and Bitcoin Rallied to 8-Month Highs
16-22 September 2026: the FOMC raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in a 12-0 vote, then Bitcoin ran from below $76,000 to a high near $86,300 with $795 million of liquidations, mostly shorts. The mechanics, the ETF flows, and what to watch.
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Bitcoin Stalls Under $80K as Hot CPI Repriced a September Fed Hike
7-14 September 2026: Bitcoin pinned under $80,000 and Ethereum near $2,500 after August CPI pushed hike odds near 90% ahead of the 16 September FOMC. Numbers, reaction, what to watch.
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What $100 in Bitcoin Would Be Worth Today (Live Numbers)
Pick a year, see the number. Live results from the Bitbank Time Machine for 2013, 2016, 2020 and 2024 entries.
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$100 Challenge: Bitcoin vs Gold vs Silver vs S&P 500 vs Nvidia Since 2016
Same $100, same start date, five assets. A live scoreboard with the peaks, the drawdowns and the shareable cards.
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Bitcoin & Crypto Tax: What Actually Triggers a Tax Bill?
A practical New Zealand guide to selling, swapping, rewards and records, with a worked NZD example.
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How CPI Moves Bitcoin, Gold, the Dollar, Yields, and Stocks
The short answer: markets do not trade the inflation level in isolation. They trade the difference between the CPI release and what was already expected, then translate that…
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Federal Reserve Rates and Bitcoin: What Actually Matters
Bitcoin trades around the clock, but the price of dollars still matters. Federal Reserve policy changes the return available on cash and Treasury securities, the cost of leverage,…
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Russia's 2022 Invasion of Ukraine: Oil, Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin, and Payments
Published 1 September 2026 · Evidence reviewed through 1 September 2026 · 14 minute read
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Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock: Inflation, S&P 500, Gold, and Bitcoin
The Strait of Hormuz is narrow, but the economic consequences of a serious disruption would spread widely. In the first half of 2025, an average 20.9 million barrels per day of…
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Bitcoin vs Gold in a Geopolitical Crisis: What History Shows
The short answer: gold has the stronger institutional history and the more consistent evidence as a portfolio shock absorber. Bitcoin has a different potential advantage: it can…
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Bitcoin vs Nasdaq-100: Why Correlation Rises—and Why It Changes
Published 1 September 2026 · Evidence reviewed through 1 September 2026 · 12 minute read
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S&P 500 vs Bitcoin: Risk, Correlation, and Portfolio Role
Published 1 September 2026 · Evidence reviewed 1 September 2026 · 11 minute read
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Why One Trading Model Did Not Fit Both Bitcoin and Ethereum
Our first optimization round promoted a conservative long/short trend model for Bitcoin. The tempting next step was to copy it to Ethereum. We did not. Running the same purged…
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Crypto in March 2025: The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
March 2025 delivered something the industry had talked about for years: an official US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. It also delivered a reminder that "bullish news" and "higher…
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Crypto in May 2025: Bitcoin's New Record
After April's whiplash, May was the month the bulls retook control. Bitcoin set a fresh record, Ethereum finally posted a green month, and a US crypto exchange entered the S&P 500…
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Crypto in November 2025: Bitcoin Breaks $100k
The damage from October's crash kept compounding. November was the worst November for Bitcoin since 2022, sentiment hit FTX-collapse lows, and even a wave of new ETF launches…
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Gold vs Bitcoin Scorecard
Gold is trading near $5,197 per troy ounce -- up 73% year-over-year and still pushing all-time highs. Bitcoin sits at $70,829 , recovering from the $60K lows of late February but…
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Miss the Best Days in Crypto: The Cost of Sitting Out
What happens to $1,000 in Bitcoin if you miss the 5, 10, 20 or 30 best days, and why the best days cluster next to the worst ones.
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The CLARITY Act Stalled. The SEC Wrote the Rules Anyway
After the Senate CLARITY Act vote failed, the SEC proposed a crypto custody framework, cleared the first 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ether ETPs, the CFTC pushed its own rulemaking, and a bank group sued the OCC. What is final, what is only proposed, and what it means for users.
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The Record ETF Week That Was a Squeeze's Ghost
21-25 September 2026: US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their biggest week of 2026 at $2.39 billion, but daily inflows fell 87% from $999 million to $134 million. The short squeeze, the cash-and-carry basis trade, a quiet $15.9bn Deribit expiry, and the PCE-and-jobs week ahead.
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The Sold-the-Top Calculator: What Perfect Timing Would Have Paid
Nobody sells the top. Here is exactly what it would have been worth, and what buying the top cost, for Bitcoin, gold and Tesla.
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Smart Contracts and the EVM: How Code Becomes Money
Bitcoin lets you move money. Ethereum lets you write programs that move money according to rules nobody can override, including their author. A smart contract is just code…
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How On-Chain Privacy Actually Works
The most common misconception in crypto is that Bitcoin is anonymous. It is the opposite: every transaction is permanently public. What it offers is pseudonymity , your name is…
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Crypto in January 2025: Memecoins and the Inauguration
January 2025 set the tone for the wildest political-crypto crossover the market had ever seen. A US president launched a memecoin three days before taking office, Bitcoin printed…
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Crypto in February 2025: The Bybit Hack and the Sell-Off
If January was euphoria, February was the hangover. The month delivered the largest crypto theft in history, a memecoin scandal that reached a head of state, and one of Bitcoin's…
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Crypto in August 2025: Ethereum's Run to $4,900
August was Ethereum's month. After years in Bitcoin's shadow, ETH finally took out its 2021 record, Bitcoin set another high of its own, and Washington opened the door to crypto…
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Crypto in October 2025: Record High, Record Crash
"Uptober" started exactly to script -- a fresh Bitcoin record and a $4.27 trillion total market cap -- and then delivered the single most violent deleveraging event crypto has…
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How to Judge a Crypto Forecast: Start With the Naive Baseline
Compare any crypto price forecast with a last price baseline, pick the right error measure, test on unseen data and check sample sizes.
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A Volatility Index for Any Asset: Regimes, Percentiles and a 30-Day Forecast
How the BitBank Volatility Index measures realized volatility, ranks it against its own history, labels the regime and forecasts the next 30 days, with the forecast skill shown against simple persistence.
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A Practical Market-Research Workflow: Time Machine, Analytics Agent, Shareable Dashboards
Frame a market question, check base rates in the Time Machine, build a dashboard with the analytics agent, stress-test and share it, with the limits of each tool.
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How BitBank Improves Itself: Monitoring Agents and Autoresearch
AI repair agents triage production errors; autoresearch agents cut Chronos forecast error 44% across 45/45 folds, and told us what does not work.
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Graveyard: Terra LUNA / UST — the $45B Death Spiral
How Anchor's 20% yield and a burn-mint peg turned a $119 token into dust in 72 hours.
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Forecasting Models: From Baselines to Transformers
Why simple rules, boosted trees, and time-series foundation models must compete on equal evidence.
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Risk, Uncertainty, and the Power to Abstain
Calibration, cash as an action, conservative sizing, portfolio controls, and circuit breakers.
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Crypto Tax in the United Kingdom
Disposals, token pooling, staking income, and recordkeeping.
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The Great Crypto Trading Game: One Button, Real Market History
Hold to buy. Release to sell. Play a minute of crypto history with pretend money, then share your score.
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How a Blockchain Actually Works
Strip away the marketing and a blockchain is a boring, useful idea: an append-only log that thousands of strangers can agree on without trusting each other. The interesting part…
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Public-Key Cryptography: How Crypto Wallets Work
A crypto wallet does not "hold" coins. The coins live on the ledger; the wallet holds the keys that authorize moving them. Understanding that one distinction explains why losing a…
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Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake
Hashes make a blockchain tamper-evident, but they do not decide who gets to add the next block. In an open network where anyone can spin up a million fake identities, you need a…
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Layer 2 Scaling: Rollups and Channels
Base-layer blockchains are deliberately slow. Every full node re-executes and stores every transaction, which is what makes them trustless, and also what caps throughput at a few…
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Crypto in April 2025: Liberation Day and the Rebound
April began with a tariff shock that cratered every risk asset on the planet, then staged one of the year's sharpest V-shaped recoveries. For crypto, it was a month that rewarded…
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Crypto in June 2025: Circle's IPO and the GENIUS Act
June belonged to the stablecoin trade. A USDC issuer went public and quadrupled, the Senate passed the first major federal stablecoin bill, and a Middle East flare-up reminded…
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Crypto in July 2025: Crypto Week and the GENIUS Act
July was the month US crypto policy stopped being a promise and became law. Congress dedicated a week to digital-asset bills, the first federal stablecoin framework was signed,…
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Crypto in September 2025: The Fed's First Cut
September is historically crypto's weakest month, and 2025 brought the macro event traders had waited all year for: the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since December 2024. The…
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Crypto in December 2025: A Red Year-End
There was no Santa rally. December capped a year that began with a record and ended with crypto's first annual decline since 2022. But beneath the weak tape, the plumbing of the…
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Volatility, Spreads and Volume
Most traders focus on exchange fees. But the real cost of a trade often lives in the spread -- the gap between the best bid and best ask. That spread is not fixed. It expands and…
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Market Volatility Indicators
Volatility is a measure of price movement intensity over time. In cryptocurrency markets, understanding and measuring volatility is crucial for risk management and trading…
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